Enhancement of Single Moving Average Time Series Model Using Rough k-Means for Prediction of Network Traffic

In the last decade, real–time audio and video services have gained much popularity, and now occupying a large portion of the total network traffic in the Internet. As the real-time services are becoming mainstream the demand for Quality of Service (QoS) is greater than ever before. It is necessary to use the network resources to the fullest, to satisfy the increasing demand for QoS. To solve this issue, we need to apply a prediction model for network traffic, on the basis of network management such as congestion control and bandwidth location. In this paper, we propose an integrated model that combines Rough K-Means (RKM) clustering with Single Moving Average (SMA) time series model to improve prediction loading packets of network traffic. The single moving average time series prediction model is used to predict loading of packets volume in real network traffic. Further, clustering granules obtained by using rough k-means is used to analyze the network data of each year separately. The proposed model is an integration of the prediction results that were obtained from conventional single moving average prediction model with centriods of clusters that obtained from rough k-means clustering. The model is evaluated using on line network traffic data that has been collected from WIDE backbone Network MSE, RMSE and MAPE metrics are used to examine the results of the integrated model. The experimental results show that the integrated model can be an effective way to improve prediction accuracy achieved with the help of rough k-means clustering. A Comparative result between conventional prediction model and our integrated model is presented.